ext_22841 ([identity profile] f4f3.livejournal.com) wrote in [personal profile] danieldwilliam 2012-10-19 03:12 pm (UTC)

This is very strange logic. When Scotland was offered a referendum on devolution in 1979, and it didn't pass (despite a majority voting Yes) devolution was off the agenda until 1997. When Scotland voted yes to that, we got a Parliament. If we vote no to independence, then devolution will be off the agenda for another 20 years (which is not the same as being dead, granted, but 20 years under a hostile government is a long time to be Scottish. Trust me. I was here.

Polls are strange things. So long as there was a fictional comfort blanket between the status quo and independence, then that would draw support. The choice now is stark. The Independence or the status quo, and even that is under threat - the Unionist parties are fairly united in wanting to roll back universal benefits in Scotland.

With two years of cuts ahead, the polls will narrow. When the Better Together campaign has to define what "together" means, they will fall apart - they cannot promise anything to Scotland, they can only threaten to take things away, and try to frighten the voters with what might happen. Labour ran that campaign of threats and fear in the last Holyrood election, and managed to turn a 20 point lead into a crushing defeat.

It's a long road that has no turning...

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