danieldwilliam (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
danieldwilliam) wrote2022-02-23 04:06 pm
danieldwilliam) wrote2022-02-23 04:06 pm
Entry tags:
On More Covid Next Winter
It looks like about 55% of the world's population are fully vaccinated. I think I found this surprisingly low until I remembered that quite a lot of rich countries have been triple vaccinating people (including mine, including me, and having just had COVID and not enjoyed it much I'm not 100% against that policy.)
The rate of vaccination globally appears to be pretty steady - in a year we've gone from 0% to 55%, so about 4.5% a month. I think vaccine protection is reasonably high for about 12 months or so after your first vaccine dose. You know, ish.) Or maybe six months if the current variant is sufficient different from the ones originally targeted by the vaccine. So looking at the UK chart for cummulative 2nd and 3rd doses we plateaued about January this year. So we're going to want to start vaccinating people again sometime between July 2022 and February 2023. I guess.
I think this is probably true of other rich countries.
And I guess we'll suck up all the available vaccines again when we re-start. So the rest of the world has between 4 and 12 months to get themselves vaccinated before they start to run short - or between another +20% or + 60%.
And today there are still a lot of places for COVID-19 to get itself passed around with lots of opportunities for unhelpful variations to emerge. And in an enviroment where there is a large and increasing vaccinated population my expectation would be that emerging variants (those that prosper enough to become noticable) are more likely than not to be the more infectious and the more (current) vaccine resistant.
Which suggests another significant outbreak in the UK early next winter as immunity decreases, we spend more time indoors because of the weather and we have some time for more vigorous variants to emerge in the quarter of the people who won't be vaccinated over the summer.
Or at least that is my current assumption.
The rate of vaccination globally appears to be pretty steady - in a year we've gone from 0% to 55%, so about 4.5% a month. I think vaccine protection is reasonably high for about 12 months or so after your first vaccine dose. You know, ish.) Or maybe six months if the current variant is sufficient different from the ones originally targeted by the vaccine. So looking at the UK chart for cummulative 2nd and 3rd doses we plateaued about January this year. So we're going to want to start vaccinating people again sometime between July 2022 and February 2023. I guess.
I think this is probably true of other rich countries.
And I guess we'll suck up all the available vaccines again when we re-start. So the rest of the world has between 4 and 12 months to get themselves vaccinated before they start to run short - or between another +20% or + 60%.
And today there are still a lot of places for COVID-19 to get itself passed around with lots of opportunities for unhelpful variations to emerge. And in an enviroment where there is a large and increasing vaccinated population my expectation would be that emerging variants (those that prosper enough to become noticable) are more likely than not to be the more infectious and the more (current) vaccine resistant.
Which suggests another significant outbreak in the UK early next winter as immunity decreases, we spend more time indoors because of the weather and we have some time for more vigorous variants to emerge in the quarter of the people who won't be vaccinated over the summer.
Or at least that is my current assumption.