I think we have to wait for the full 3 week period. Lots of people will have been carrying the virus on the 8th of March who only got sick on the 15th and perhaps only passed it on the week after the 8th.

I don't want to be Polyannaish about this but I do think it's a week too soon to tell.

If by the 1st of April Italy isn't seeing a distinct leveling off in new cases and deaths then I'll start to worry (more).