Absolutely, I'm thinking in terms of the SNP's theory of victory. A good outcome for them at any UK general election is for a narrow win or a hung parliament to make the government of the day needful of keeping the SNP sweet. A full outright win is winning a majority of the Scottish seats.
Particularly in 2020 which is far enough from 2014 that #IndyRef2 is a credible ask and close enough to 2014 that the spirit and infrastructure of the Yes 2014 campaign might still be around.
Good point on the SNP talent pool. However, They now seem to have the potential for much more depth with an additional 40,000 members to draw on and, in my view, the strategic momentum that makes young aspiring politicians more likely to join the SNP than any of the other leftish outfit in Scotland. If you want to win, join the team that's winnning.
Of all the parties the SNP have an easier time of double seating as, on principle, they don't vote on matters that don't affect Scotland. They therefore don't really have to master much of a brief. In a 2020 SNP win scenario they also won't be expecting their MP's to serve more than one term. SNP MP's are very unlikely to be involved in a UK government. So all they really need is some lobby donkeys who can do a decent job as a constituency MP.
So easier for the SNP to double seat and less damaging for them to send their B team to Westminster.
It's very unlikely that the SNP will ever be involved in a UK government but no impossible. Depending on how you read the polls there is a credible scenario where neither Labour or the Tories plus the Lib Dems hold a majority and are dependent on a third party for support. In that situation I personally doubt that the SNP would take part in the ministry and would prefer a confidence and supply and constitutional reform arrangement but it's not inconceivable that they would opt for a few junior ministerial posts in the Treasury, Defence, Foreign Office and Trade and Industry.
no subject
Particularly in 2020 which is far enough from 2014 that #IndyRef2 is a credible ask and close enough to 2014 that the spirit and infrastructure of the Yes 2014 campaign might still be around.
Good point on the SNP talent pool. However, They now seem to have the potential for much more depth with an additional 40,000 members to draw on and, in my view, the strategic momentum that makes young aspiring politicians more likely to join the SNP than any of the other leftish outfit in Scotland. If you want to win, join the team that's winnning.
Of all the parties the SNP have an easier time of double seating as, on principle, they don't vote on matters that don't affect Scotland. They therefore don't really have to master much of a brief. In a 2020 SNP win scenario they also won't be expecting their MP's to serve more than one term. SNP MP's are very unlikely to be involved in a UK government. So all they really need is some lobby donkeys who can do a decent job as a constituency MP.
So easier for the SNP to double seat and less damaging for them to send their B team to Westminster.
It's very unlikely that the SNP will ever be involved in a UK government but no impossible. Depending on how you read the polls there is a credible scenario where neither Labour or the Tories plus the Lib Dems hold a majority and are dependent on a third party for support. In that situation I personally doubt that the SNP would take part in the ministry and would prefer a confidence and supply and constitutional reform arrangement but it's not inconceivable that they would opt for a few junior ministerial posts in the Treasury, Defence, Foreign Office and Trade and Industry.